France’s Military Withdrawal & Africa’s Realignment

As Russia, China, and other emerging players step into the vacuum, the balance of power in Africa is undergoing a fundamental transformation.

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Overview

France’s longstanding influence in Francophone Africa is unraveling at an accelerated pace. Over the past year, a wave of political and military realignments has led to the expulsion of French troops and the termination of defense agreements across multiple nations. Chad became the latest country to sever ties, officially taking control of the last French military base in N'Djamena on January 31, 2025. This follows similar moves in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. With France retreating, new power players—including Russia, China, and Turkey—are stepping in to reshape the region’s security and economic dynamics. These developments carry far-reaching implications for regional stability, economic relationships, and Western engagement with Africa.

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Key Developments

France’s Military Withdrawal and the End of Defense Agreements

• Chad’s Strategic Break: France concluded its military presence in Chad, formally transferring its last base to the local government. This marks the end of a defense pact that had existed for decades, dating back to post-independence agreements that positioned France as a key security provider. French forces had played a critical role in counterterrorism operations and regional stabilization efforts, but growing local dissatisfaction with France’s military involvement and influence led to the decision to part ways.

• A Pattern of Expulsions: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all ousted French military forces and replaced them with alternative security arrangements. These governments, often led by military juntas, have sought to assert their sovereignty and distance themselves from France’s historical influence, turning instead to non-Western partners for defense and security support. In particular, Russian-backed military advisors have stepped in to fill the security void, promising stronger counterinsurgency measures.

• Uncertain Future for Remaining French Outposts: With only Djibouti and Gabon hosting French military bases, the longevity of France’s security footprint in Africa is in question. Djibouti remains a critical outpost due to its strategic location along the Bab el Mandeb Strait, hosting multiple foreign military bases, including those of the U.S., China, and Japan. Gabon, however, faces political instability following recent government transitions, raising the possibility that its leadership may reconsider its military ties with France. If Gabon follows the regional trend, France could lose another key base, further eroding its influence on the continent.

The Rise of New Alliances and Power Players

• Russia’s Growing Footprint: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have pivoted toward Russian military support, notably through the Wagner-affiliated Africa Corps, in exchange for security guarantees and economic agreements. Russian forces are capitalizing on anti-French sentiment to expand their influence in the region, offering military assistance with fewer political conditions compared to Western governments.

• China’s Expanding Economic Leverage: As France withdraws, Chinese firms are aggressively pursuing infrastructure and mining projects, securing critical access to Africa’s natural resources. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has gained traction, with African nations increasingly looking to Beijing for financing and development partnerships, particularly in sectors such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications.

• Turkey and the UAE Enter the Scene: Chad and other nations are increasingly looking to Turkey and the UAE for military training, arms procurement, and strategic cooperation. Turkey’s growing military presence in Africa is supported by its defense industry, which provides drones and armored vehicles, while the UAE has been deepening ties through security pacts and economic investments, particularly in the Sahel region.

Security Concerns & Counterterrorism Challenges

• Growing Terrorist Threats: The vacuum left by French forces has emboldened militant groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP, allowing them to regroup, expand recruitment efforts, and launch more frequent cross-border attacks. The resurgence of these groups is particularly concerning in northern Nigeria, the Lake Chad Basin, and the tri-border region between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. With security forces stretched thin, these extremist factions are exploiting weak governance structures and porous borders to reassert their influence.

Sahel region of Africa. (Encyclopædia Britannica)

• Border Stability at Risk: The movement of arms and militants across the region has heightened tensions, as Tuareg militant factions and government forces compete for territorial dominance. The increasing reliance on Russian paramilitary groups, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, has led to clashes with local factions and raised growing concerns about human rights violations and extrajudicial actions.

• Loss of Key Intelligence Assets: France’s departure means African nations lose access to sophisticated intelligence-sharing mechanisms, including drone surveillance and counterterrorism coordination. French military bases previously provided critical real-time data on extremist movements, helping to preempt attacks. Without these assets, local forces face a significant gap in monitoring and responding to emerging threats. The shift to alternative partners, such as Russia and Turkey, may not immediately compensate for this intelligence deficit, increasing the likelihood of unexpected militant advances and destabilization.

Economic Fallout & Political Consequences

• A Hostile Business Climate for Western Companies: Governments in Mali and Niger are prioritizing national control over resources, implementing restrictive measures on Western corporations while favoring Russian and Chinese firms.

• Migration as a Strategic Lever: With Russia asserting security dominance, there is growing concern that migration routes from Africa to Europe may be manipulated for geopolitical leverage. Increased instability and economic hardships in the Sahel could drive waves of migration toward Europe, intensifying pressure on European governments to negotiate with new regional power brokers.

• Rising Anti-French Nationalism: Political leaders across West Africa are leveraging anti-French sentiment to solidify domestic support, reinforcing calls for economic and political sovereignty. Public demonstrations against France have increased, with demands for reparations and policy shifts that further limit Western involvement in national affairs.

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Strategic Implications & Future Outlook

For France:

• The erosion of military influence weakens its ability to project power in Africa and maintain a strategic foothold.

• French corporations face growing economic and regulatory obstacles as African governments favor alternative partners.

• Macron’s efforts to revitalize France’s relationship with Africa have failed, effectively marking the end of "Françafrique" as a geopolitical reality.

• The diminishing influence will likely impact France’s broader foreign policy, forcing Paris to rethink its strategic engagements in other former colonies and beyond.

• France may need to shift toward soft power strategies such as cultural diplomacy and economic partnerships to regain a foothold in the region.

For Europe:

• A potential surge in migration from the Sahel will strain European border management policies.

• EU member states must recalibrate their foreign and security policies to respond to a diminished French presence in the region.

• China’s increasing dominance in African markets presents a long-term challenge to European economic influence.

• European companies operating in Francophone Africa may face increased competition from Russian and Chinese firms, necessitating stronger trade and investment policies.

• The EU may need to consider alternative diplomatic and economic initiatives to counteract the loss of influence in Africa.

For the U.S.:

• Washington must reassess its counterterrorism approach in Africa without France leading security operations, particularly in regions where jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb remain active. Without a robust Western security presence, the risk of extremist networks expanding their influence increases significantly.

• Securing reliable partners for regional stability will be critical as Russia and China gain ground. The U.S. will need to strengthen diplomatic ties with African nations and enhance economic and military cooperation to counteract the growing influence of non-Western actors.

• The rise of non-Western players could complicate U.S. diplomatic and military engagements across the continent, especially in securing strategic resources and maintaining access to intelligence-sharing networks. The shifting allegiances of African nations may require Washington to adapt its policy framework to ensure continued influence and stability.

• The Pentagon may also need to reconsider its base locations and military deployments to maintain an operational presence in key regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.

For Russia & China:

• Russia Strengthens Its Geopolitical Influence: As France withdraws, Russia is stepping into the security void, expanding its reach while securing access to Africa’s strategic resources. Russian military contractors and diplomatic initiatives are increasing in prominence, further embedding Moscow's influence in key African states.

• China’s Economic Dominance Grows: With Western firms retreating, Chinese investment in African infrastructure, technology, and resource extraction is accelerating, further entrenching Beijing’s influence. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects continue to expand, solidifying Beijing’s long-term economic relationships with African governments and increasing reliance on Chinese financial backing for critical infrastructure.

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Conclusion

France’s withdrawal from Chad and other African nations is more than a military reconfiguration—it represents a profound geopolitical shift. African nations are asserting their independence and pursuing diversified global partnerships, moving away from their historical reliance on Western powers. As Russia, China, and other emerging players step into the vacuum, the balance of power in Africa is undergoing a fundamental transformation. This transition signals the end of France’s decades-long dominance, while ushering in a new era of multipolar engagement, strategic realignment, and competitive geopolitics in Africa.

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